On-Chain Data Indicates The Bitcoin Price Bull Run is Far From Over

What if I told you that the thrill and excitement surrounding Bitcoin’s rising price might still just be the beginning of something much larger? As I take a closer look at the on-chain metrics, it becomes apparent that there’s a world of data just waiting to be examined. Rather than getting swept up in the emotional tides that often accompany market swings, it seems wise to lean into the quantitative insights that can illuminate Bitcoin’s potential path forward.

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Plenty of Upside Remaining

When I consider the concept behind the MVRV Z-score, it becomes less about the fluctuations of a price chart and more about gauging the overall market temperature. This metric compares Bitcoin’s market value—which is essentially the price times the number of coins in circulation—with its realized value, representing the average price at which Bitcoins were last traded. The historical significance of this Z-score cannot be overstated; entering the “red zone” signals an overheated market, while the “green zone” may indicate widespread losses or capitulation.

In the present moment, even with Bitcoin making strides towards all-time highs, the Z-score lingers in neutral territory around 3. From my exploration of previous bull runs, Z-scores have soared from 7 to 10. This history leads me to believe there’s ample room for significant price growth, suggesting that we haven’t yet scratched the surface of what could come.

Profitability of Miners

Moving on to the Puell Multiple, a tool that evaluates miner profitability, I see it paints a nuanced picture as Bitcoin rises. The multiple weighs daily USD-denominated miner revenue against its one-year moving average. Post-halving, miners faced a steep profit decline, struggling for several months during 2024 as Bitcoin prices consolidated.

Currently, while the price is on the upswing, the Puell Multiple indicates only a modest 30% increase in profitability compared to historical averages. This hints that we might still be in the early to mid-stages of the bull market. With past patterns showing potential for explosive growth akin to what happened in 2016 and 2020, it’s intriguing to watch as the market dances around the 1.00 multiple, signaling the potential for price expansion.

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Measure Market Sentiment

Then there’s the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric, which offers a window into investor sentiment. By mapping overall network profitability, NUPL reveals feelings that span various emotional states—optimism, faith, and euphoria. Much like the MVRV Z-score, this metric relies on realized value to gauge current profits or losses for all stakeholders, providing a holistic look at market sentiment.

Right now, Bitcoin finds itself firmly planted in the “faith” zone, far shy of the “euphoria” or “greed” terrains. This aligns with other data streams suggesting that there’s substantial room for prices to advance, especially since this metric hasn’t yet returned to levels experienced during the previous all-time high in March 2024. I can’t shake off the feeling that optimism persists, suggesting we might not yet have witnessed the peak of this rally.

Long-Term Shareholder Trends

One element that intrigues me is the 1+ year HODL wave, which shows the percentage of Bitcoin held for more than a year—currently around 64%. This number stands in stark contrast to previous bull cycles, where percentages fell to around 40% and 53% in 2017 and 2021, respectively. It seems probable that should similar profit-taking behavior occur this time around, there are still millions of Bitcoins awaiting transfer to new participants.

The significance of this long-term holding trend cannot be overlooked. As of now, only about 800,000 Bitcoins have been moved from long-term holder supply during this current rally. In previous cycles, we’ve seen figures range from 2 to 4 million Bitcoins changing hands. This could very well indicate that long-term holders are still optimistic about future price appreciation, showing resilience in their strategies and positioning.

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Track the “Smart Money”

Paying attention to the movements of the “smart money”—those experienced investors in the Bitcoin space—often informs my understanding of market sentiment. The coin days destroyed (CDD) metric weighs transactions based on how long coins have been held, focusing significantly on whale activity. This metric serves as a barometer for whether substantial Bitcoin holders are cashing in profits or holding strong.

Current levels remain tantalizingly distant from the red zones typical of market peaks. The absence of substantial selling from these smart money holders underscores a belief that higher returns await. This signals to me that patience might be a virtue in this market and that the whales are not quite ready to part with their holdings.

Conclusion

In a world dominated by market oscillations, it’s enlightening to lean into data-driven insights derived from on-chain metrics. These indicators offer clarity amid the emotional frenzy that often surrounds Bitcoin trading. Despite the rally, signs point toward Bitcoin remaining undercooked. Long-term holders stand firm with their holdings, and key metrics illustrate a landscape still ripe for future growth.

As I wrap up this exploration, I can’t help but emphasize the importance of adopting a data-centric approach to investing. Emotional decisions stemming from fear of missing out (FOMO) or excitement can be perilous. Instead, orchestrating investment strategies around the fundamental data that guides Bitcoin provides invaluable insights that enhance decision-making.

For those curious about further insights, I recommend checking out related YouTube content to enrich your understanding. The world of Bitcoin operates on a delicate balance between emotions and data. By embracing the latter, I feel more equipped to navigate the often tumultuous waters of cryptocurrency investment. Here’s to paying attention to the numbers—they just might lead us to the bright shores of financial opportunity.

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in my opinion, in my experience, What I’ve been through

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