Ascend Wellness: Potential Stock Performance and Targets

April 2, 2024 | by


Ascend Wellness, a cannabis stock, has experienced a significant rally of 29.5% in 2023. As the cheapest Tier 1 or Tier 2 MSO, the company has demonstrated notable growth, with its net revenue expanding by 28% to $518.6 million. While operating expenses increased by 12%, adjusted EBITDA for the year grew by 14% to $106.5 million. With operations in multiple states, including Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Ascend Wellness has positioned itself strategically in the market. Despite substantial debt and negative tangible book value, analysts anticipate an 11% revenue growth to $576 million in 2024, with adjusted EBITDA set to rise to $124 million, a 17% increase. While the stock performance has trailed behind AYR Wellness, it has outpaced other Tier 2 MSO names. Currently, Ascend is regarded as the most affordable MSO in terms of the enterprise value to projected adjusted EBITDA ratio. Traders should be cautious of the potential near-term resistance at $1.50, while others may view the stock’s optimistic target of $4.00 as an attainable goal. However, both Ascend and its industry peers face a significant risk if the 280E tax does not go away.

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Ascend Wellness: Potential Stock Performance and Targets

Ascend Wellness: Potential Stock Performance and Targets

Overview of Ascend Wellness

Ascend Wellness (OTCMKTS: AAWH) is a cannabis stock that has shown significant growth and potential in recent years. As a Tier 1 or Tier 2 Multi-State Operator (MSO), Ascend Wellness has gained attention in the market due to its impressive performance and presence in several states. With a focus on providing high-quality cannabis products to consumers, Ascend Wellness has positioned itself as a key player in the cannabis industry.

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Financial Performance of Ascend Wellness

Ascend Wellness has achieved noteworthy financial success, showcasing its ability to generate substantial revenue. In 2023, the company experienced a 28% growth in net revenue, reaching an impressive $518.6 million. This growth demonstrates Ascend Wellness’ ability to capture a significant share of the market and attract consumers with its diverse range of cannabis products.

While the net revenue growth is impressive, it is essential to consider the company’s operating expenses. Ascend Wellness experienced a 12% expansion of operating expenses in 2023. Although the increase in expenses may raise concerns among investors, it is crucial to evaluate the company’s ability to efficiently manage and scale its operations while maintaining profitability.

Adjusted EBITDA, a key measure of profitability for cannabis companies, expanded by 14% to $106.5 million in 2023. This indicates Ascend Wellness’ ability to effectively generate earnings and maintain a healthy financial position. As the company continues to expand its operations and increase its market presence, it is expected that the profitability will continue to grow.

Ascend Wellness: Potential Stock Performance and Targets

Expansion and Operations

Ascend Wellness operates in multiple states, including Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. This broad geographical presence allows the company to tap into various markets and reach a wide range of consumers.

In each state of operation, Ascend Wellness has established a robust set of operations. The company’s operations include cultivation, processing, and retail distribution of cannabis products. By controlling each stage of the supply chain, Ascend Wellness ensures the quality and consistency of its products, ultimately leading to customer satisfaction and loyalty.


Key success factors for Ascend Wellness include its ability to adapt to changing regulations and consumer preferences, its strong brand image, and its commitment to innovation. These factors enable the company to stay ahead of the competition and maintain its position as a leading player in the cannabis industry.

Considering the positive growth and expansion exhibited by Ascend Wellness, there is significant potential for the company to further expand into additional states. As more states legalize cannabis and consumer demand continues to increase, Ascend Wellness can seize new market opportunities and continue its growth trajectory.

Debt and Tangible Book Value

One aspect that investors should carefully assess is Ascend Wellness’ debt and tangible book value. While the company has substantial debt, it is important to consider how this debt is managed and whether it poses a risk to the company’s financial stability.

Additionally, Ascend Wellness has negative tangible book value, which means that its liabilities exceed its tangible assets. This can raise concerns among investors, as it indicates a potential for financial instability.

Investors should carefully evaluate the company’s ability to manage and reduce its debt while maintaining profitability. Assessing the steps taken by Ascend Wellness to improve its tangible book value is also essential in better understanding the company’s financial position and potential risks associated with its stock.

Ascend Wellness: Potential Stock Performance and Targets

Analysts’ Expectations for 2024

Analysts have projected positive growth for Ascend Wellness in 2024. Revenue is expected to grow by 11% to $576 million, demonstrating the company’s ability to sustain its growth trajectory. This growth is driven by factors such as increasing consumer demand, further market penetration, and the introduction of new product lines.

Adjusted EBITDA is also expected to experience significant growth, projected to increase by 17% to $124 million in 2024. This highlights Ascend Wellness’ ability to maintain profitability and generate strong earnings. Additionally, factors such as cost containment measures and operational efficiencies contribute to the positive expectations of analysts.

These optimistic expectations from analysts indicate that Ascend Wellness has the potential to continue its growth and deliver value to its shareholders. However, it is crucial for investors to conduct their own research and carefully evaluate the assumptions and projections made by analysts.

Comparison to Competitors

When comparing Ascend Wellness to its competitors, it is important to assess its performance against industry peers. One notable competitor is AYR Wellness. While Ascend Wellness has been outperformed by AYR Wellness in terms of stock performance, it has outpaced other Tier 2 MSOs. This demonstrates Ascend Wellness’ ability to compete effectively in the market and maintain its position as a strong contender.

Analyzing the competitive landscape provides valuable insights into the strength and positioning of Ascend Wellness within the industry. Understanding how Ascend Wellness differentiates itself from its competitors and capitalizes on market opportunities is crucial in evaluating its potential for continued success.

Ascend Wellness: Potential Stock Performance and Targets

Valuation and Enterprise Value

In terms of valuation, Ascend Wellness is currently considered the cheapest MSO in terms of enterprise value to projected adjusted EBITDA ratio. This indicates that the stock may be undervalued compared to its peers, presenting an opportunity for investors seeking potential returns.

The assessment of valuation should take into account various factors, including the company’s financial performance, growth potential, and industry dynamics. By analyzing these factors, investors can make informed decisions regarding the investment potential of Ascend Wellness.

Several factors influence the enterprise value of Ascend Wellness. These factors may include the company’s revenue growth rate, profitability, market opportunities, and ability to manage costs and debt. Understanding the drivers behind the enterprise value provides crucial insights into the overall value proposition of Ascend Wellness as an investment opportunity.

Near-Term Resistance and Optimistic Target

Ascend Wellness’ stock performance has shown potential, but it is essential to consider the near-term resistance and optimistic target for the stock. Near-term resistance refers to a price level above which it may be challenging for the stock to rise in the short term.

In the case of Ascend Wellness, the stock has potential near-term resistance at $1.50. This level indicates a potential hurdle that the stock may face in terms of breaking through and continuing its upward trajectory.

On the other hand, an optimistic target for Ascend Wellness’ stock is projected to be $4.00. This target represents a level at which the stock may reach if it continues to perform well and attract investor interest.

Various factors, such as market sentiment, industry trends, and company-specific developments, can influence Ascend Wellness’ stock performance. Investors should carefully monitor these factors and conduct thorough analysis before making investment decisions.

Ascend Wellness: Potential Stock Performance and Targets

Risk Factors for Ascend Wellness

Like any investment opportunity, there are risk factors associated with investing in Ascend Wellness. One significant risk for Ascend Wellness and its peers in the cannabis industry is the potential non-elimination of the 280E tax. This tax provision disallows cannabis companies from deducting normal business expenses, resulting in higher tax burdens.

The non-elimination of the 280E tax could significantly impact Ascend Wellness’ profitability and financial performance. Investors should carefully consider the potential risks associated with the regulatory environment and policy changes that may affect the cannabis industry.

It is crucial for investors to conduct thorough due diligence and carefully assess risks before making investment decisions. Understanding the potential risks and their potential impact on Ascend Wellness’ stock performance is essential for strategic decision-making.


In conclusion, Ascend Wellness has shown remarkable potential in terms of stock performance and growth prospects. The company’s financial performance, expansive operations, and positioning as a Tier 1 or Tier 2 MSO contribute to its attractiveness as an investment opportunity.

However, investors should carefully evaluate the company’s debt and tangible book value, as well as consider the expectations of analysts and the competitive landscape. Additionally, the assessment of valuation and enterprise value provides insights into the investment potential of Ascend Wellness.

Considering the near-term resistance and optimistic target for Ascend Wellness’ stock, investors should carefully monitor market trends and industry developments. Furthermore, understanding the risk factors associated with Ascend Wellness is crucial when making informed investment decisions.

While Ascend Wellness exhibits strengths and growth potential, investors should consider their own risk appetite and financial goals when considering investment opportunities in the cannabis industry. Conducting appropriate research and seeking professional advice is advised before making any investment decisions.

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