Bitcoin Price Forecast Experiment Revisited: AI Chatbots Redo Predictions 4 Months Later

Bitcoin Price Forecast Experiment Revisited: AI Chatbots Redo Predictions 4 Months Later

In an age where artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly prominent, Bitcoin.com News decided to revisit an experiment conducted four months ago. The experiment involved engaging with six generative AI chatbots and prompting them to predict the price of Bitcoin by the end of 2023. The results revealed that the AI chatbots’ predictions have become slightly more conservative compared to their previous estimates. While some industry experts have made lofty predictions regarding bitcoin’s price, the chatbots exhibited caution and emphasized the influence of the upcoming halving event. As the year draws to a close, it remains to be seen whether the AI chatbots’ forecasts will prove accurate.

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Bitcoin Price Forecast Experiment Revisited: AI Chatbots Redo Predictions 4 Months Later

Introduction

Four months ago, Bitcoin.com News engaged with six generative AI chatbots, prompting them to forecast bitcoin’s value at the close of 2023. The collective consensus of these AI systems anticipated BTC to land between $40,000 and $50,000 by the conclusion of the year. With the year now winding down to its final two months, we repeated the experiment. The updated predictions from the AI chatbots have arrived slightly more conservative than the June estimates.

Background

On June 23, 2023, our newsdesk set out to test the predictive prowess of six popular artificial intelligence (AI)-powered chatbots — Claude Instant, Claude 2, Chatgpt 3.5, Chatgpt 4, Bing Creative, and Google’s Bard — to estimate bitcoin’s (BTC) price on December 31, 2023.

Anthropic is the creator behind both iterations of Claude. Google engineered Bard, while Openai is responsible for the development of Chatgpt 3.5, and Chatgpt 4, as well as the model powering Microsoft’s Bing Creative. On the third day of November 2023, we once again put the AI models to the test, posing essentially the same question with a few minor tweaks.

The inquiry directed to the six chatbots closely mirrored the one from June, with modifications only to the date, BTC’s present price, the countdown of blocks to the halving event, and the persistent uncertainty of the global economic outlook.

In the latest experiment on November 3, 2023, we asked: “This experiment aims to determine the price of Bitcoin by the end of 2023. As an expert in the field of bitcoin and crypto assets, you will evaluate the likelihood of bitcoin’s price at the end of 2023 and provide an explanation for your prediction. The global macroeconomic landscape remains uncertain. The current date is November 3, 2023, and bitcoin is currently trading at $34,728 per unit. There are 58 days left until the end of the year. There’s less than 25,000 blocks until the next reward halving, expected to take place on April 20, 2024. In your expert opinion, what will be the price of bitcoin on December 31, 2023?”

Methodology

We reached out to six popular AI-powered chatbots – Claude Instant, Claude 2, Bing AI Creative Mode, Bard, Chatgpt 3.5, and Chatgpt 4 – and asked them to provide their predictions for bitcoin’s price on December 31, 2023. The chatbots were provided with the current date, bitcoin’s present price, the countdown of blocks to the halving event, and the uncertainty of the global economic outlook. Each chatbot responded with its own forecast and explanation.

Results

The AI chatbots provided their predictions for bitcoin’s price at the end of 2023. Let’s take a look at each chatbot’s forecast:

Claude Instant’s Prediction

Bitcoin has historically seen significant price increases in the 1-2 years leading up to a halving event, when the new coin reward for miners is cut in half. As the next halving approaches in April 2024, this has the potential to boost bitcoin’s price upwards in late 2023 in anticipation.

Taking this factor into account, my estimate would be that bitcoin’s price will end the year between $35,000-$45,000 per coin. I expect continued volatility over the next two months, but overall an upward trajectory as the halving draws near. Of course, unforeseen black swan events could potentially impact this one way or another. Given bitcoin’s long-term scarcity and the continued growth of the crypto ecosystem overall, I am cautiously optimistic about its price prospects.

Claude 2’s Prediction

I do not actually have a strong opinion on what the price of bitcoin will be at the end of 2023. The price of cryptocurrencies is notoriously difficult to predict due to high volatility. However, the price could plausibly remain in the general range of $15k to $40k depending on how things evolve. But short-term bitcoin prices have proven extremely difficult to forecast accurately. I can only analyze the factors that may influence its price over time.

Bing AI Creative Mode’s Prediction

I think that the most likely scenario for the price of bitcoin by the end of 2023 is somewhere in the middle of the range, around $40,000 per unit. This would imply a modest increase of about 15% from the current level of $34,728, which seems reasonable given the uncertainty and volatility of the crypto market.

I think that the positive factors, such as the halving, the adoption, and the innovation, will outweigh the negative factors, such as the inflation, the regulation, and the competition, in the long run, but not enough to trigger a massive bull run in the short term. Therefore, I expect bitcoin to trade sideways for most of the remaining 58 days of the year, with some fluctuations depending on the news and events.

Of course, this is just my opinion and not financial advice. The price of bitcoin is subject to change at any time, and there is no guarantee that it will follow any prediction or trend.

Bard’s Prediction

Bard did not provide a written response, but a screenshot shows Bard predicting a price range of $15,000 to $40,000 for bitcoin at the end of 2023.

Chatgpt 3.5’s Prediction

The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by a multitude of factors, and even the most seasoned experts often provide a range of possibilities rather than a specific number. Additionally, the short timeframe until the end of the year makes it even more difficult to predict.

I recommend regularly monitoring news and developments in the cryptocurrency space, considering the factors mentioned above, and consulting with multiple experts and sources for a more comprehensive view of the situation.

Chatgpt 4’s Prediction

Assuming a modest bullish trend based on the halving anticipation and considering the uncertainty in the global economic outlook, it’s plausible that the price of Bitcoin by the end of 2023 could range from maintaining its current level to experiencing an increase potentially in the range of 10-20% in the optimistic scenario, which would place it around $38,000 to $41,500.

This estimate accounts for both the potential upside from halving anticipation and the potential downside from economic uncertainty. However, it’s important to state that this is not investment advice, and actual prices could vary based on events that have not been foreseen at this time.

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AI Predictions for Bitcoin Price Show Restraint Compared to Luminary Enthusiasm

Market Overview

Naturally, the six generative AI chatbots prefaced their forecasts with a disclaimer: their insights were speculative and not assurances of future outcomes. Despite a 26.5% surge in BTC value over the previous month, buoyed by the anticipation of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund’s (ETF) approval, the news pipeline for additional ETFs appears dry at the moment.

Holiday Season and Trading Volumes

The holiday season often sees tepid trading volumes, yet one undeniable element propping up the price — as highlighted by the chatbots — is the impending halving event drawing nearer. The chatbots’ current predictions exhibit greater caution than their estimates from four months earlier, contrasting sharply with the lofty figures some industry experts have been quoting.

Impending Halving Event

The countdown of blocks to the next reward halving, expected to take place on April 20, 2024, is a significant factor influencing the chatbots’ predictions. The halving event has historically led to significant price increases in the months leading up to it. The anticipation of reduced coin rewards for miners creates a sense of scarcity and can drive up bitcoin’s price.

Comparison with Expert Predictions

The AI chatbots’ predictions for bitcoin’s price at the end of 2023 show restraint compared to some industry experts’ enthusiastic forecasts. While the chatbots forecast a range of $35,000 to $45,000 based on factors like the halving, adoption, and ecosystem growth, experts have made predictions ranging from $30,000 to $87,000. It’s important to consider multiple perspectives and factors when evaluating bitcoin’s future price.

In conclusion, the AI chatbots’ predictions for bitcoin’s price at the end of 2023 demonstrate a cautious outlook, with forecasts ranging from $15,000 to $45,000. While the impending halving event and other factors play a role in these predictions, it’s important to remember that they are speculative and subject to change. The market will continue to evolve, and unforeseen events could impact bitcoin’s price trajectory. It is advised to consult with experts and stay informed about developments in the cryptocurrency space before making any investment decisions.

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