Zvinoita here kunzwa kuzorodzwa munguva dzisina chokwadi dzakadaro dzoupfumi? Ndiwo mubvunzo wandinozviwana ndichifunga-funga nguva zhinji, kunyanya mushure mezvichangobva kuitika kubva kuFederal Reserve, inoita kunge yakapa misika kudzoreredzwa kubva mukutya kunoramba kuripo kwakatenderedza iyo inonzi "Trumpcession." Kuona kushanduka kwemusika wemasheya kunowanzoita senge kutasva roller coaster, kunyanya kana mazwi nezviito zvevatungamiriri vezvematongerwo enyika zvichiita kunge zvinoraira zvakawanda zvehupfumi hwedu.
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Iyo Fed's Recent Sarudzo
Munguva ichangopfuura, ndakaona sangano reFederal Reserve richiita misoro yenhau nokuita kuti mubereko urambe wakatsiga, danho rakanga richitarisirwa nevakawanda. Nekudaro, chakanyanya kubata pfungwa dzangu yaive zano rekuti maviri angangoita chiyero chekucheka achiri kuramba ari patafura yegore. Sezvo Sachigaro weFed Jerome Powell akaenda kuchikuva, akadzokorora izwi rekuti “kusava nechokwadi” kanenge kagumi panguva yekero yake. Zvaiita sekunge izwi rakarembera mumhepo, richindipa pfungwa yemhepo yakangwarira inoputira Fed mazuva ano.
Kune rumwe rutivi, ndakanyaradzwa nekutaura kwaPowell kuti hupfumi hunoramba hwakasimba. Nerimwe divi, kusimbisa kwekutora nzira yekumirira-uye-kuona maererano nehurongwa hwehupfumi hweMutungamiri Donald Trump yakandizadza nekuvhunduka. Mumamiriro ekunze umo tweet yega yega uye kutaura kunoratidzika kunge kunogona kukonzera kusagadzikana kwemusika, zvakandiita kuti ndizvibvunze kuti isu tinofanira kungwarira sei mukudyara kwedu uye sarudzo dzemari.
Market Reactions
Zviito zvakatorwa kuFed zvakapa kupenya kwetariro kune misika yakaremerwa. Mushure mekuchinja kwese uye kushanduka kunoshamisa mumwedzi ichangopfuura - nemasheya aiwanzopindura kutyisidzira kwaTrump-zvakare, kure-zvakare kutyisidzira kwemitero-zvaizorodza kuona iyo S&P 500 uye tech-inorema Nasdaq Composite zvese zviri pedyo ne1.1% uye 1.4%, zvichiteerana. Zvaiita sekuti misika pamwe chete yaitura befu.
Asi makore akarembera pamusoro peWall Street haaite seanoparara zvachose. Vhiki rimwe chete rapfuura, ma indexes akange apinda munzvimbo yekururamisa-zvichireva kuti vaive vatora inodarika gumi muzana kubva pakukwira kwavo kwese. Mhirizhonga ichangoburwa iyi yakasiya vazhinji vachinzwa sekunge mushure mekukunda kwaTrump musarudzo kwabviswa, uye handirambe kuti zvakaita kuti ndinzwe kusagadzikana.
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Kunzwisisa "Kusava nechokwadi"
Chris Diaz, mushandirwi pafemu yekudyara mari, akataura mamiriro acho zvakanaka paakaratidza kuti kuwanda kwekushandisa kwaPowell "kusavimbika" kwakanyatso shamisa. Pane chimwe chinhu pamusoro pekusava nechokwadi chinoita kuti mudumbu mangu muite manyawi; inoisa pfungwa yekusahadzika, yekuzengurira, iyo inopinda munhaurirano dzese pamusoro pekudyara uye zano rehupfumi.
Sezvo Fed yakaburitsa fungidziro yayo yepakati-ichiratidza kuderedzwa kuviri kwaitarisirwa mubereko mune yavo yakakurumbira "dot plot" -ndakaratidza kuti izvi zvinokanganisa sei makirasi easset semastock. Zvaiita sekunge iyo Fed yairova vatengesi 'egos zvinyoro nyoro ichiri kuita zvipikirwa zvemamiriro ehupfumi akanaka. “Izvozvo, nokuda kweboka rezvinhu zvine ngozi zvikuru [se] masheya,” akadaro Diaz, “ishoko rinogamuchirwa zvikuru kupfuura, ‘Hatisati tichizoita chinhu chipi nechipi, kana kuti zvimwe tichakwidza mitengo nemhaka yokuti hatizivi chichaitika kukukwira kwemitengo.’”
Quantitative Kusimbisa uye Kududzirwa Kwemusika
Handina kukwanisa kuita asi kufunga nezvezvinorehwa nerimwe izwi rakatenderera nenhaurirano dzenguva pfupi yapfuura dzeFed: kuwanda kusimba. Pandakaziva kuti Fed inogona kunonoka kuita uku - nzira yekuburitsa zvinhu kubva pamari yayo - yakasimudza tsiye dzangu. Vamwe vanoisa mari vakaturikira danho iri sechiratidzo che dovish. Neimwe nzira, zvinonakidza kuti tinowanzo dudzira zvisizvo zviratidzo zvichienderana nerusaruro uye kutya kwedu.
Mumusangano wake nevatori venhau, Powell akajekesa kuti shanduko iyi yaingova mhinduro yekuwedzera kusimba mumisika yemari kwete shanduko inoshamisa mumutemo wemari. Zvakandiita kuti ndione kuti maonero anogona sei kuchinja zvichibva pane diki nuances mukutaurirana, iyo pachayo, inowedzera imwe nhanho yekusagadzikana kune yekudyara nyika.
Iyo Fed's Economic Projections: Kukura uye Inflation
Kana zvasvika kune hutano hwehupfumi, ndinogara ndichizviwana ndakatarisa kukura uye inflation projections pedyo. Mishumo ichangoburwa yakaratidza kuti Fed yakagadzirisa fungidziro yekukura kwayo kubva pa2.1% kusvika 1.7%, dhipi inoshamisa yakaita kuti ndifungisise kuti hupfumi hwedu hwazvino hwakapusa sei. Kana sangano guru rehupfumi richiratidza kudzikiswa kwetarisiro yekukura, handigoni kuita asi kunzwa kushushikana zvishoma kuti zvinorevei kune ramangwana redu rezvemari.
Panguva imwecheteyo, fungidziro yavo yekukwira kwemitengo yakakwira kubva pa2.5% kuenda pa2.7%, ichipfuura chinangwa chebhanga guru renyika che 2% — kushushikana kuri kuitika muchikamu chose chehupfumi. Pandinotanga kunetsana neruzivo irworwo, ndinoziva kuti havasi vese vatori vechikamu vemusika vari kuona mamiriro aya nekutya kwakafanana. Vamwe, samaneja wehedge fund, Jay Hatfield, vanopokana kuti marongero eFed anoramba akaomesesa kunyangwe vakapihwa zviratidzo zvekusasimba kwehupfumi.
Pro-Growth Policies vs. Tariff Threats
Ndinoona zvichinakidza kuona musiyano mukuru pakati pezvinotarisirwa nevazhinji vemari kubva kuhutongi hutsva uye chokwadi chatiri kutarisana nacho. Pakutanga, chitendero chaive chekuti manejimendi aikoshesa zvirongwa zvekusimudzira, sekuderedzwa kwemitero uye kudzoreredzwa. Pane kudaro, tarisiro yachinja pakugadzirisa hukama hwekutengeserana, zvichisiya vazhinji vedu tichifunga kuti mitemo iyi yemitero ichapisa inflation kana kukura zvishoma.
Mukukurukurirana neshamwari nemhuri, ndinowanzoratidza kunetseka kwangu pamusoro pokusvika padanho repamusoro apo mamiriro ezvinhu chaiwo anogona kukudziridza kuderera kwemari—mamiriro ezvinhu anotya nyanzvi dzezveupfumi dzakawanda. Sezvakataurwa naPowell pachake, kukanganisa kwekudzikira kwakakosha pane tarisiro yehupfumi kunoramba kusinganzwisisike, uye zvinondisiya ndichinzwa sekunge tiri kunyura mugungwa rekusafungira kwehupfumi.
The Stagflation Dilemma
Iko kugona kwe stagflation inyaya yandinoona yakanyanya kusagadzika. Jeffrey Roach, mukuru wezveupfumi weLPL Financial, nguva pfupi yadarika akayambira kuti sezvo tarisiro yekukura ichiderera uye inflation ichiramba yakasindimara, vanoisa mari zhinji vanogona kunetsekana nezve mukana wekukwira kwemitengo. Zvinoita sokunge takamira pamucheto pemawere, tiri pakati pekukura kuri pakati nepakati uye kudzikira uko kunogona kubata nyika.
Sarudzo yaGoldman Sachs yekudzikisa fungidziro yekukura kweGDP kusvika 1.7% yaive imwe yekumuka kwangu. Kwenguva yekutanga mumakore, maonero avo anowira pasi pekubvumirana mumusika, izvo zvechokwadi zvinowedzera huremu kumatambudziko angu pamusoro pekukwira kwemitengo kunoramba kuchikwira. Kuona mashifiti aya kunoita kuti ndisimuke uye nditarise pandinofunga nezve nzira yandinogona kuchengetedza nayo ramangwana rangu rezvemari.
Matambudziko eFed uye Zvinotarisirwa Pamusika
Pandinofunga nezvekuita kweFederal Reserve, ndinogona kunzwisisa dambudziko rakaoma ravanosangana naro mukuyedza kufadza misika pakati pekusagadzikana kwakakura kudaro. Aimbova Federal Reserve VP, David Andolfatto, munguva pfupi yapfuura akataura kuti kutsoropodza Fed nekunyanya kungwarira kwakafanana nekushevedzera mutyairi anononoka panguva yedutu. Zvakandibaya mwoyo kuti ichokwadi sei; kuita sarudzo mukutarisana nekusajeka hakusi nyore.
“Hapana anogona kuona makomba acho,” akadaro, uye zvakandibata zvikuru. Nguva idzi dzinoda kuti tifambe zvine hunyanzvi uye nekuchenjerera kukuru. Chishuvo changu ndechekuramba ndakasvinura, ndichipinda mukati apo ndichifamba nemamiriro ehupfumi anogara achichinja izvo zvinogona kutungamirira kumisungo isingatarisirwi.
Kutarisa Mberi: Investor Sentiment
Semunhu anodyara mari, ndinowanzo shamisika kana ndakagadzirira kukwira masaisai ekusavimbika. Nezviratidzo zvakasanganiswa kubva kuFed uye fungidziro yehupfumi ichizungunuka, ndinoyeuchidzwa kuti misika inowanzoita kwete chete kune chokwadi uye manhamba asiwo kune maonero uye manzwiro. Madudziro andinodudzira mazwi aPowell uye zviito zvaanotaura zvinogadzirisa zano rangu rekudyara kumberi.
Mukutaura nevamwe vari mudenderedzwa rangu, ndinonzwa kudedera mumanzwi avo. Vari kutarisira denga rakajeka pamusoro pemamiriro ehupfumi. Tichifunga nezvemhirizhonga ichangoburwa mumisika yemari, zvinongori muropa kuti unzwe kunetseka kwekunetseka. Ndinonyaradzwa nokuziva kuti handisi ndega mukusava nechokwadi uku.
Matanho eMamiriro Ekunze Anogona Madutu
Kufamba nemumvura idzi dzine matope kunoda kwete kuziva chete asiwo zano. Ndasvika pakukoshesa kukosha kwekusiyanisa mainvestimenti kuti ndisangane nekudzikira, kunyanya munguva dzino apo hunhu hwangu hwemukati hunondiudza kungwarira kwakakodzera. Kuongorora kushivirira kwenjodzi uye kutonga chiyero pakati pekudyara kwehasha uye kuchengetedza mari icharamba iri pamberi pemaitiro angu ekufunga.
Ndinoziva kuti nekunyatsoronga, ndinogona kugadzira nzira isina mari chete asiwo inogadzikana mupfungwa. Zvese ndezvekuongororazve pandimire, semuridzi wega wega uye nhengo yemamiriro ehupfumi akakura anogona kuchinja zvakanyanya nechero chidimbu chenhau.
Mhedziso: Ramangwana Rakanaka
Apo pandinenge ndichiedza kunzwisisa zvese, ndinodzokera kupfungwa yekusagadzikana-pasi pezvakawanda zveruzivo rwedu muhupfumi hwanhasi. Nezvirongwa zvinogara zvichishanduka uye fungidziro inoshanduka, chinoramba chiri pachena kudiwa kwekungwarira uye kuchinjika.
Pakupedzisira, ndinoona kuti zvichagara zvakaoma kutarisira kuti misika ichaita sei kune kutamba kusina kusimba kwezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi. Parizvino, ndinogara munzvimbo yekuchenjerera, ndakabatirira mupfungwa yetariro kuti mukutenderera kwekusava nechokwadi, pane mukana wekukura nekupora. Icho chiitiko chekuenzanisa, zvese zvinoda uye zvinopa mubairo, apo ini ndinoenda mberi pakati pekuchinja kwemamiriro ehupfumi hwedu.
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